Dr. SaMeH S. Ahmed

Civil and Environmental Engineering Department

Variance


Variance


In probability theory and statistics, the variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out. It is one of several descriptors of a probability distribution, describing how far the numbers lie from the mean (expected value). In particular, the variance is one of the moments of a distribution. In that context, it forms part of a systematic approach to distinguishing between probability distributions. While other such approaches have been developed, those based on moments are advantageous in terms of mathematical and computational simplicity.

The variance is a parameter describing in part either the actual probability distribution of an observed population of numbers, or the theoretical probability distribution of a sample (a not-fully-observed population) of numbers. In the latter case a sample of data from such a distribution can be used to construct an estimate of its variance: in the simplest cases this estimate can be the sample variance, defined below.

Basic discussion

[edit]Examples

The variance of a random variable or distribution is the expectation, or mean, of the squared deviation of that variable from its expected value or mean. Thus the variance is a measure of the amount of variation of the values of that variable, taking account of all possible values and their probabilities or weightings (not just the extremes which give the range).

For example, a perfect six-sided die, when thrown, has expected value of

frac 16(1+2+3+4+5+6)=3.5.

Its expected absolute deviation—the mean of the equally likely absolute deviations from the mean—is

frac 16(|1-3.5|+|2-3.5|+|3-3.5|+|4-3.5|+|5-3.5|+|6-3.5|)=frac 16(2.5+1.5+ 0.5+0.5+1.5+2.5)=1.5.

But its expected squared deviation—its variance (the mean of the equally likely squared deviations)—is

frac 16 (2.5^2+1.5^2+0.5^2+0.5^2+1.5^2+2.5^2)=17.5/6approx 2.9.

As another example, if a coin is tossed twice, the number of heads is: 0 with probability 0.25, 1 with probability 0.5 and 2 with probability 0.25. Thus the mean of the number of heads is 0.25 × 0 + 0.5 × 1 + 0.25 × 2 = 1, and the variance is 0.25 × (0 − 1)2 + 0.5 × (1 − 1)2 + 0.25 × (2 − 1)2 = 0.25 + 0 + 0.25 = 0.5.

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